Week 6, Settled
Week 6 finished ahead. The Analyst picks carried it, winning five of seven, including both Monday night plays. The model's picks split evenly, and quarterback touchdowns were again the market that cost us.
Season to date on published plays: 113–144–9, −24.19u.
The week in brief
Sixteen plays, 11.5u risked, 9–6–1 for +1.16u. Model picks went 4–4–1 (−1.34u); Analyst picks went 5–2 (+2.50u).
Receptions went 6–1–1 for +2.36u. Foster Moreau, Xavier Hutchinson and Mason Taylor all cleared their overs for the model. Davis Allen did not catch a pass. On Monday night, Antonio Williams caught three at +147 and George Kittle stopped at five, under 5.5. Rashod Bateman left Cleveland early injured after 17 snaps, so his play was voided and the stake returned.
Passing touchdowns went 1–3 for −1.53u. Jalon Daniels threw one to cash his over. Justin Herbert threw none against a −212 over, Michael Penix Jr. threw three against our under, and Jordan Love's one touchdown fell short of 1.5 on Sunday night.
Window by window
| Window | Plays | Record | Risked | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday night | 3 | 2–1 | 2.5u | +0.20u |
| Sunday 9:30 | 2 | 2–0 | 1.5u | +0.87u |
| Sunday 1pm | 4 | 2–1–1 | 2.0u | +0.29u |
| Sunday 4:05 | 1 | 0–1 | 1.0u | −1.00u |
| Sunday 4:25 | 2 | 0–2 | 1.5u | −1.50u |
| Sunday night | 2 | 1–1 | 1.5u | +0.43u |
| Monday night | 2 | 2–0 | 1.5u | +1.87u |
Thursday night's Analyst card won two of three. Jaxon Smith-Njigba went for 134 yards against 93.5 and Courtland Sutton caught two, but Emanuel Wilson finished with 14 carries, short of 17.5. On Sunday night, MarShawn Lloyd's eight carries cashed the under, while Love's touchdown over lost.
What changed for Week 7
Research held twelve model picks before kickoff this week. Graded afterwards, those holds went 6–6. Holds on players whose role had changed were mostly right; holds on part-time players at short prices to catch a single pass were mostly wrong.
For Week 7, the card widened. Completions and receiving yards became eligible, the two-picks-per-game limit came off, and each kickoff window got its own card.
Every play, all 16
Swipe the table sideways for price, result and units.
| Pick | Game | Market | Track | Stake | Price | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Wilson Over 17.5 rush attempts | SEA @ DEN | Rush attempts | Analyst | 1.0u | -112 | Lost | -1.00 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 93.5 receiving yards | SEA @ DEN | Receiving yards | Analyst | 1.0u | -111 | Won | +0.90 |
| Courtland Sutton Under 3.5 receptions | SEA @ DEN | Receptions | Analyst | 0.5u | -169 | Won | +0.30 |
| Foster Moreau Over 0.5 receptions | HOU @ JAX | Receptions | Strong edge | 1.0u | -220 | Won | +0.45 |
| Xavier Hutchinson Over 1.5 receptions | HOU @ JAX | Receptions | Edge | 0.5u | -118 | Won | +0.42 |
| Rashod Bateman Over 1.5 receptions | BAL @ CLE | Receptions | Strong edge | 1.0u | -167 | Void | — |
| Mason Taylor Over 1.5 receptions | NYJ @ NE | Receptions | Edge | 0.5u | -158 | Won | +0.32 |
| Jalon Daniels Over 0.5 passing tds | PIT @ TB | Pass TDs | Strong edge | 1.0u | -213 | Won | +0.47 |
| Michael Penix Jr. Under 1.5 passing tds | CHI @ ATL | Pass TDs | Edge | 0.5u | +100 | Lost | -0.50 |
| Davis Allen Over 0.5 receptions | ARI @ LA | Receptions | Strong edge | 1.0u | -202 | Lost | -1.00 |
| Justin Herbert Over 0.5 passing tds | LAC @ KC | Pass TDs | Strong edge | 1.0u | -212 | Lost | -1.00 |
| Omarion Hampton Over 9.5 rush attempts | LAC @ KC | Rush attempts | Edge | 0.5u | -115 | Lost | -0.50 |
| MarShawn Lloyd Under 11.5 rush attempts | DAL @ GB | Rush attempts | Analyst | 1.0u | -108 | Won | +0.93 |
| Jordan Love Over 1.5 passing tds | DAL @ GB | Pass TDs | Analyst | 0.5u | -210 | Lost | -0.50 |
| Antonio Williams Over 2.5 receptions | WAS @ SF | Receptions | Analyst | 1.0u | +147 | Won | +1.47 |
| George Kittle Under 5.5 receptions | WAS @ SF | Receptions | Analyst | 0.5u | -125 | Won | +0.40 |