Week 7, Settled

The week in brief

Twenty-four plays across seven windows, 15.0u risked, 10–14 for −3.38u. Model picks went 10–12 (−2.38u); Analyst picks went 0–2 (−1.00u).

Passing touchdowns cost the week: 1–5 for −2.75u. Cam Ward, Daniel Jones and Patrick Mahomes all failed to throw a touchdown, so all three overs lost. On Thursday night, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye each threw two against our unders. Bo Nix, under 1.5 with one, was the only winner.

Receiving yards went 3–2 in their first week. John Metchie III, Chris Olave and Kyle Williams all cashed for the model. The two Analyst unders did not: Jameson Williams went for 91 yards against a 53.5 line, and Courtland Sutton for 45 against 33.5. Receptions went 5–4.

Window by window

Only the Paris game finished ahead. The 4:25 window went 0–2: Jahmyr Gibbs carried 29 times against an under of 20.5. On Monday night, Saquon Barkley's under cashed with seven carries, but Javonte Williams carried 25 times and Jake Ferguson did not catch a pass.

What we are watching for Week 8

Eighteen of the twenty-four plays were unders, including every play in the Thursday and Paris windows. We did not set out to pick unders. Our player projections lean under on most props, and the overs that made the shortlist this week were mostly on part-time players, so research held them back. Before either change touches the card, we are testing two rules against past weeks: a limit on how far one window can lean to one side, and overs only for players who are on the field for most of their team's snaps.

Short-priced touchdown overs are on the list too. At −225 and −235, one miss erases about two wins, and Ward and Jones both missed. We are testing a price limit on them.

Every play, all 24

Swipe the table sideways for price, result and units.